A convoy of trucks in Eastern Syria reportedly got hit by a drone attack as it crossed into the country from Iraq, on Sunday. Sources could not provide an estimate on casualties or a clear idea of who is behind the attack, but recent geopolitical tensions and similar incidents hint towards the ongoing Israel-Iran altercation.
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Understanding The Incident
The drone attack was conducted in a ‘kamikaze’ manner, and took place in the Syrian border region of Boukamal, which is considered a bastion of Iran-backed militias. This leads experts to believe strongly that the attacked convoy was carrying Iranian armaments and soldiers.
On the issue of the identity of the attacking actor – on-ground sources and experts all mutually hint to the heightening tensions between Iran and its rivals in the region.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based opposition war monitor, indicated the origin of the attack to the U.S-led coalition in the region against Iran.
The group also said that the convoy of trucks were carrying critical supplies in a refrigerated setup. According to this source, there were casualties in the attack and emergency services responded to the area immediately.
Associated Press reporters interviewed a Europe-based activist, who said that the strike hit a convoy of Iran-backed militia-men.
The pro-government Sham FM radio-station also reported that the attacked convoy consisted of six refrigerated trucks.
Current sources reflect inconsistencies over three things – number of casualties, origin of attack and the nature of what the convoy was carrying.
Was the attack an isolated incident of insurgent activity, or another contributor to the growing tensions surrounding a ‘shadow war’ against Iran, led by Israel & a West backed coalition?
Israel vs. Iran Tensions
The attack on the convoy in Syria came hours after a similar drone attack hit an Iranian munitions factory in the city of Isfahan, causing certain damage with no casualties reported yet. Media sources report that the attack was conducted by Israeli intelligence that remained clandestine within Iranian borders.
A month back, the Israeli military chief of staff strongly suggested that Israel was behind a drone strike on a truck convoy in the same region in Syria that took place in November. Israel however had denied being involved with the attack at the time of it occurring, which according to the British Observatory killed at least 14 people, most of which were militiamen.
That was not the first instance of such an acknowledgement, as Israeli officials and leaders have made several statements suggesting hundreds of incidents of Israeli intelligence and armed forces hitting several targets in Syria and other places with a specific intent of stopping Iranian attempts of ammunition smuggling to insurgents and proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The roots behind the Iran-Israel tensions converge around Syria – where Iran provides extensive support to the incumbent Assad regime, having sent a huge number of military contingents to help the Syrian troops fight off the rebels in the decade long ongoing civil war. Iran & the Syrian Assad regime ally with the Lebanon based Hezbollah militant group.
Israel considers Iran a major threat in the region, and has declared Iran to be its chief enemy.
Anti-Iran Coalition
Warnings from Israel against the activities of Iran has led to Israel creating a coalition of regional powers, which has managed to break the anti-Israel sentiments harbored by the Arab regimes in the region, in order to team up against a bigger threat.
The anti-Iran coalition has received significant backing from the US & other Western powers, who also view Iran as a major threat.
The coalition is built to counter Iran’s clandestine nuclear activity and its supply of arms.
The Iran nuclear issue has been one that has determined much of the regional insecurity for the past decade. Negotiations to re-establish limitations on Iran’s nuclear programme have reached a deadlock – and Tehran has violated the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal and surpassed the ceiling limit on enrichment.
On the issue of unregulated armament supply, Western media reports indicate that Iran has been backing insurgent rebel forces and dictatorial regimes for a long time, contributing to the insecurity in the region.
Recently, tensions were heightened when Iran was found supplying long-range “suicide drones” to Russia in aid to their war effort against Ukraine.
Iranian armaments have been reported for killing thousands of Ukrainians, causing anti-government protests at home and abroad. The US, the EU & the UK have imposed fresh sanctions on Tehran.
What Next?
Since Israel does not directly take blame for individual incidents, Iranian officials call attacks within their borders “cowardly” and targeted to create “insecurity” in Iran.
When it comes to attacks on foreign soil, such as the current incident where it is suggested that the convoy was carrying Iranian troops and armaments – Iran has to move with much more caution.
However, despite showing clear indications that they reserve speculations of the Israeli origin behind such attacks, Iran’s defense ministry has always considered the damage caused by them as “trivial” and have stated that they will not change Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
As the Foreign Minister stated on national television after an attack that took place last year,
“Such actions will not impact our expert’s determination to progress in our peaceful nuclear work.”
Israeli leaders have however given warnings that they will resort to a military attack if it is required to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb – in case diplomacy fails.
A former commander of Israel’s navy, Eliezer Maron said that Iran is on the threshold of obtaining nuclear weapons, and it is better to attack “now, than later.”
This sentiment is shared largely by officials and leaders at Tel-Aviv. Experts however believe that it would be a difficult task if Israel has to carry out such an attack unilaterally.
Capability is also an issue, as Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden in risky terrain, which will require certain armaments that Israel currently does not possess, and cannot procure from the USA as it is banned for export.
The Western allies of the coalition, especially the US have indicated that they have not been involved in any of the attacks targeting Iranian munitions caches or convoys. The US has been reserving its active involvement in the Middle East for some time now, focusing more on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its ongoing competition with China.
That however appears to change, as the US conducted large-scale military drills with Israel last week. A senior US defense official said that the exercises were meant to demonstrate integration between the US & Israeli militaries amid growing tensions over Iran’s nuclear program.
The official report after the drill concluded stated that the exercises showed how the US could effectively surge large numbers of battle-ready forces into the Middle East, if the need calls for it.
The clear signal posed by the military exercises to the Islamic Republic of Iran, also came with news arising in Washington which states the US administration and several members of Congress are actively considering on removing the ban and providing Israel with the tactical F-15X jets and the GBU ‘Bunker-Buster’ bombs, which is what it needs to conduct strikes on Iran’s ‘hidden’ nuclear facilities.
The recent events therefore are expected to create a heightened environment of tensions in the region, as a possible Israel-Iran confrontation looms closer.
Also Read : Dangers of Russia-Iran Friendship
