Nigeria is facing routine violence as the presidential election nears, including attacks on the offices of the election commission, putting the next month’s presidential elections at risk.
There have been around 50 attacks by armed groups against the employees and facilities of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), between the last election of 2019 and the end of 2022. These attacks have primarily occurred in the southeast, under the control of secessionist agitation by various groups, including the Indigenous People of Biafra(Ipob).
Nigeria is going to conduct its presidential elections on 25 February 2023. The major runners are Bola Ahmed Tinubu from the All Progressive Congress party, Atiku Abubakar from the People’s Democratic Party and Peter Obi from the Labour Party. The incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari will be leaving Nigeria amid rising economic turmoil and a worsening security situation.
Insecurity – Nigeria’s main issue
The forthcoming presidential elections have been centred around economic hardships and insecurity. In 2022, inflation grew for 10 months straight, and it dropped to 21.3% in December. This is accompanied by the rising cost of living, and unemployment has created a dire situation in Nigeria.
The National Bureau of Statistics’ latest data shows an increase in the population of unemployed adults from 33% to 42.5%. According to the World Bank, four out of ten Nigerians reside below the poverty line and lack access to education, basic infrastructure like safe drinking water, electricity, and improved sanitation.
On the other hand, Clouds of insecurity have been hovering over Nigeria, as the country’s security forces are engaged in a 13 – year war against jihadists in the northeast, and militias are terrorising society in the north-west, where Ansaru, a terror group allied with al -Qaeda, had restricted local people from participating in the election. The inflow of arms, lingering militancy and overstretched military conditions have allowed a rise in armed groups spreading violence.
Similarly, in southeast Nigeria, a series of violence by the Ipob group also threaten the coming elections. According to James Barnett, a researcher at Hudson Institute of Washington DC “Ipob movement is being used by criminals or political thugs as a cover for their activities.”
According to local media, an estimated 100 police and security personnel have been killed in targeted attacks since 2021.
Earlier this month, the atmosphere of violence was brought to the forefront as dozens of cattle herders and bystanders were killed in a bomb blast, in the north-central region of Nigeria, popularly known as the Middle Belt. This region is vulnerable to violence due to differences between Fulani pastoralists and farmers, who belong to Christianity.
Free and Fair elections
In earlier elections, Nigeria has reported many instances of politicians rigging the elections, by illicit means of using violence to threaten the voters and snatching and filling the ballot boxes. In 2019, the electoral commission had to postpone the election by a week a few hours before voting was scheduled to begin as the materials hadn’t reached polling stations.
However, the Independent National Electoral Commission has said the new technology is reliable and will ensure secure elections, not tainted by fraud or rigging. It has also evoked strict rules like not carrying phones to polling booths and clicking pictures of their ballot papers.
Nigerian elections have been marked by low voter turnout, it dropped from 44% in the 2015 presidential elections to 35% in the 2019 elections.
There have been allegations of suspicious voter registration. INEC uncovered voter cards with pictures of children on them, and multiple registrations by a single voter on the digital electoral register. The national electoral commission has tried to rectify these errors and released a new register from which dubious voters have been removed. It has also announced strict actions against underage voters and vote buyers.
At present, vote-buying is expected to be restricted due to the recent change in the naira notes, which has led to a cash crunch making it difficult to buy votes. Security agents have also been placed, to arrest suspects who either spend or receive money
The security conditions, especially in south-east Nigeria run a risk of delay in elections. In November 2022, the election commission held a meeting over the disturbing trend of attacks on its infrastructure. Experts have said there is a possibility of lower voter turnout due to disenfranchisement caused by insecurity. However, the head of the electoral commission has dismissed such suggestions that the elections could be delayed by insecurity.
