The nine nuclear-equipped states— US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel continue to upgrade their nuclear powers, and several deployed new nuclear-armed systems in 2022.
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According to the 2023 report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, released on Monday, India has projected 164 nuclear weapons, which is comparable to Pakistan’s arsenal but significantly less than China’s, which targets to match its Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) figures with those of the USA or Russia by 2030.
USA and Russia hold 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons.
India-Pak-China
In the SIPRI Yearbook 2023, the research highlighted that India appeared to be emphasizing longer-range missiles, particularly ones that can reach targets throughout China yet Pakistan continues to be the primary target of its nuclear deterrence.
India has been urged to reevaluate its strategic priorities as a result of the quickly rising geopolitical tension in the Indo-Pacific region, which is characterized by China’s bold conduct and rapid advancement of its military.
The continuous development of the Agni chain of ballistic missiles, including the Agni-V with a range of more than 5,000 km, shows the Defence Ministry’s determination to expand its striking capabilities.
India also want to preserve its assets and defend against possible threats by investing in cutting-edge missile defense systems, which will strengthen its overall nuclear deterrence.
The 164 weapons constitute a part of a nuclear triad including nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, land-based missiles, and planes. Pakistan, on the other hand, possessed 164 of these weapons in 2022, but it intends to add five more by using its current arsenal.
With an estimated 350 nuclear weapons last year and plans to add 410 more by the end of 2023, China is far ahead of both in terms of nuclear arsenal size.
China’s nuclear arsenal is estimated to have 410 warheads as of January 2023, up from the 350 weapons SIPRI estimated in January 2022. By the turn of the decade, China might have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either the United States or Russia, depending on how it determines to organize its forces.
The Indian figures are based on calculations of its arsenal of weapon-grade plutonium, the projected amount of operational nuclear systems for delivery, nuclear doctrine, information about the Indian nuclear arsenal that is readily available to the public, and confidential discussions with defense officials. Greater uncertainty exists in the Pakistani estimate.
Although maintaining a nuclear no-first-use policy since 1999, this commitment is limited by a 2003 caveat that India could deploy nuclear forces to respond to attacks by non-nuclear weapons of destructive force (reaffirmed in 2018).
There are speculations in the strategic community about whether India is moving towards a counterforce nuclear position to target an adversary’s nuclear weapons earlier in a crisis even before they could be used. This is because a portion of there nuclear arsenal is being maintained at a much greater degree of readiness. There is, however, no formal statement.
Deteriorating global security
The 54th edition of the SIPRI Yearbook documents the ongoing decline in international security during the previous 12 months. Nearly all of the topics related to weaponry, disarmament, and global security explored in the Yearbook are affected by the conflict in Ukraine. However, it was far from the only significant dispute in 2022, and severe geopolitical tensions, distrust, and division had surged long before Russia invaded its neighbor on a large scale.
Dan Smith, director of SIPRI said, “We are drifting into one of the most dangerous periods in human history.” “It is crucial that governments around the world work together to reduce geopolitical tensions, halt arms races, and address the rising effects of environmental degradation and increasing global food shortage.
