Previous estimate of 1,000,000 Sudanese fleeing the war-torn country might have been an underestimation according to the UNHCR chief. Moreover, around the same number of people have also been displaced within Sudan due to the war.
The chief of the UN refugee agency United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees has warned that the prior projection of one million people fleeing the country due to the Sudan War by October is probably an underestimation. According to UNHCR Commissioner Filippo Grandi, the escalating war might lead to increased human trafficking and weaponry proliferation throughout the vulnerable region.
UNHCR initially estimated that approximately 800,000 Sudanese and 200,000 people of other nationalities would flee Sudan in six months, but the agency’s chief, Filippo Grandi, now believes that these statistics may be understated.
Grandi remarked in an interview in Cairo that the earlier projection of reaching these high figures in the next few months may even be “conservative.” He added that despite being reluctant to believe these figures earlier, he was now “beginning to be worried.”
Rapid Collapse of Law and Order
He voiced concern about Sudan’s breakdown of law and order, saying that with a desperation in people to move on, the environment is perfect for the creation of conditions conducive to human trafficking. He also stated that the cross-border movement of weaponry could escalate the bloodshed. It happened in Libya with the Sahel, and Grandi does not want that to happen again because it will exacerbate the crisis and worsen the humanitarian problems.
Demographics of Displacement
As reported by a recent media source, over 350,000 people have fled Sudan since the outbreak of war between the two parties – the Sudanese army, and the paramilitary RSF (Rapid Support Forces) on 15th April 2023, seeking asylum in neighbouring countries such as Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt. The number of refugees fleeing to Egypt, the largest host country for Sudanese refugees, is constantly rising, with UNHCR affiliates estimating over 5,000 arrivals per day. According to the administration, about 110,000 Sudanese have now entered the country, which already had a sizable Sudanese minority.
People are fleeing Sudan, primarily from Khartoum, Darfur, and other dangerous locations. Sudanese Commission for Refugees (COR) estimates that around 88,000 refugees have fled Khartoum for safety. The fleeing Sudanese are seeking asylum in neighbouring places of Gedaref, White Nile, Port Sudan, and Kassala Madani. UNHCR is providing crucial assistance to refugees and other displaced individuals in certain locations, including shelter, household items, clean water and sanitation facilities, healthcare, and education support, according to a statement by UNHCR.
According to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), approximately 843,000 individuals have been internally displaced within Sudan, with surrounding governments and UNHCR recording around 250,000 crossing borders as of 30th May 2023, Tuesday.
South Sudanese Forced to Return to the Country They Fled
Arrival rates in South Sudan remain high, at roughly 1500 per day. Many of the 63,000 arrivals were South Sudanese people who had previously sought refuge in Sudan. The Upper Nile State’s Renk crossing is where the majority of them arrive. The border transit facility is growing overcrowded, and resources are being stretched thin, heightening security issues. Despite the logistical hurdles, the government and UN affiliates are making urgent efforts to transfer people back to their homes by road or river boat.
As the Sudanese Army and Rapid Support Forces recently agreed to extend the ceasefire already in effect, the country continues to plunge deeper into humanitarian crises as rapid outward migration and internal displacements continue to rise. UNHCR along with its affiliates continues to track the movement of refugees, and attempts to provide necessary aid to them.